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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas yesterday.  It's here.

MARCH 2,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

NOW WE KNOW THE TRUTH! – From Britain's hopelessly left-wing Independent:  "Climate change was a key driver of the Syrian uprising, according to research which warns that global warming is likely to unleash more wars in the coming decades, with Eastern Mediterranean countries such as Jordan and Lebanon particularly at risk.  Experts have long predicted that climate change will be a major source of conflict as drought and rising temperatures hurt agriculture, putting a further strain on resources in already unstable regimes."  Sounds like a plea for more government grants to "climate" researchers, and of course that's exactly what it is.

ANOTHER SCANDAL, ANOTHER SHOW – How will Hillary get out of this one?  From The New York Times:  "WASHINGTON — Hillary Rodham Clinton exclusively used a personal email account to conduct government business as secretary of state, State Department officials said, and may have violated federal requirements that officials’ correspondence be retained as part of the agency’s record.  Mrs. Clinton did not have a government email address during her four-year tenure at the State Department. Her aides took no actions to have her personal emails preserved on department servers at the time, as required by the Federal Records Act.  It was only two months ago, in response to a new State Department effort to comply with federal record-keeping practices, that Mrs. Clinton’s advisers reviewed tens of thousands of pages of her personal emails and decided which ones to turn over to the State Department. All told, 55,000 pages of emails were given to the department. Mrs. Clinton stepped down from the secretary’s post in early 2013.  Her expansive use of the private account was alarming to current and former National Archives and Records Administration officials and government watchdogs, who called it a serious breach."  Do the Clintons ever follow the rules, or is that just for the little people?

GREAT MOMENTS IN EDUCATION – From London's Telegraph:  "Kanye West told a packed lecture theatre of Oxford University students on Monday afternoon that had he pursued a career in fine art, he would have liked to 'become Picasso or greater.'  The 350-strong crowd gave the American rapper a standing ovation as he entered the room at the Oxford University Museum of Natural History.  West, who had been invited to speak by The Oxford Guild Society, told the students that he had 'the best reputation in the building.'  At the start of his address, the 37-year-old rapper told students to ask him questions so that he could just 'riff off.'  He then spoke for around half an hour about the themes of 'aesthetic' and 'progression' which he said he picked out from the first question."  I'm sure Oxford students were culturally uplifted.

APPROPRIATE – From AP:  "House Speaker John Boehner plans to give Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a bust of Winston Churchill when he speaks to a joint meeting of Congress about the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran.  The gift was chosen because Netanyahu and the former prime minister of Britain are the only foreign leaders who have addressed Congress three separate times."  I'm supposin' there was another reason:  Do you recall that one of the first things Obama did as president was to send the bust of Churchill that sat in the Oval Office back to Britain?  It was considered an insult to Britain and to the memory of a man revered in America.  I suspect Speaker Boehner is needling the president, and good for Boehner!

March 2, 2015       Permalink

WILL STROOCK – AT 11:14 A.M. ET:   Will Stroock is not only one of Urgent Agenda's founding readers and subscribers, he's also a leading military historian.  A new release from Will is absolutely timely, given the news out of the Mideast and Bibi Netanyahu's dramatic speech to Congress tomorrow.

Will's "Israel at War," now out on Amazon's Kindle (http://www.amazon.com/Israel-at-War-Her-Enemies-ebook/dp/B00T6Q7Y08/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1425313654&sr=8-1&keywords=Israel+at+War+Stroock) is the best history I've read on Israel's wars with its Arab opponents.  There are important insights here that help explain why Israel has been successful, and why Arab military organizations so often fail.

I consider this required reading for anyone interested in the Mideast and in military affairs.  Highly recommended.

March 2, 2015       Permalink

CENTRIST DEMS COME ALIVE? – AT 10:24 A.M. ET:  There aren't too many left, and maybe, after meeting in a closet, they've concluded that they're in danger of winding up in museums.  From The Hill: 

Centrist Democrats are gathering their forces to fight back against the “Elizabeth Warren wing” of their party, fearing a sharp turn to the left could prove disastrous in the 2016 elections.

For months, moderate Democrats have kept silent, as Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) barbed attacks against Wall Street, income inequality and the “rigged economy” thrilled the base and stirred desire for a more populist approach.

But with the race for the White House set to begin, centrists are moving to seize back the agenda.

The New Democrat Coalition (NDC), a caucus of moderate Democrats in the House, plans to unveil an economic policy platform as soon as this week in an attempt to chart a different course.

"I have great respect for Sen. Warren — she's a tremendous leader,” said Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.), one of the members working on the policy proposal. “My own preference is to create a message without bashing businesses or workers, [the latter of which] happens on the other side."

Peters said that, if Democrats are going to win back the House and Senate, "it's going to be through the work of the New Democrat Coalition."

"To the extent that Republicans beat up on workers and Democrats beat up on employers — I'm not sure that offers voters much of a vision," Peters said.

Warren’s rapid ascent has highlighted growing tensions in the Democratic Party about its identity in the post-Obama era.

Caught in the crossfire is the party’s likely nominee in 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whose husband took the party in a decisively centrist direction during his eight years in office.

Former President Bill Clinton’s rise within the party had been aided by groups such as the Democratic Leadership Council, which believed that previous presidential nominees including Walter Mondale and Michael Dukakis had run on platforms that were too far to the left, resulting in crushing defeats.

But the tensions from those long-ago fights are now tangible again. Progressives distrust Hillary Clinton and are pushing Warren to challenge her from the left in the presidential election, though Warren has repeatedly rebuffed their pleas.

COMMENT:  The problem for the centrists, besides pure lack of numbers, is that the so-called "progressives" dominate the nominating process and are the majority at national conventions.  And they are in control of the black vote, without which Dems cannot win a national election.

We wish the centrists luck.  All six of them.

March 2, 2015       Permalink

RUBIO TO RUN? – AT 9:49 A.M. ET:  Despite all his activity, Florida's Marco Rubio has not formally entered the 2016 race for president.  That may be about to change.  From AP: 

PALM BEACH, FLA. — Marco Rubio isn't quite ready to say he's running for president, yet admits it sure does look like he will seek the White House in 2016.

"I think that's reflected in both our travel and some of the staffing decisions that we've made," the Florida senator told The Associated Press. "We — if in fact I make that final decision on a run — want those elements to be in place."

The message that his decision is still pending is one Rubio delivered again this past week on stage, both at the Conservative Public Action Conference outside Washington and at the conservative Club For Growth in Palm Beach. But allies of the first-term senator and former speaker of the Florida House who have spoken with him about his plans fully expect that he will run for president, rather than a second Senate term.

He's made it clear he would leave the Senate if he got into the presidential race.  It's a tough decision for him for he's far from the favorite for the presidential nomination. 

"I assume he's running," said Wayne Berman, a veteran Republican fundraiser who was chairman of Sen. John McCain's presidential fundraising in 2008. "He will help the party turn the page, politically, to the next generation."

Nearly a dozen people close to Rubio, including GOP officials, fundraisers and his advisers, say Rubio has told them he is in the final stages of planning the launch of his presidential run and will formally join the crowded field of Republican hopefuls as early as April. All spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss their private conversations with Rubio.

Berman said he is working to line up donors to finance that national campaign. Among the donors who have signed on: former Rep. Bill Paxon, now with law firm Aiken Gump's Washington offices, Dallas investor George Seay and Goldman Sachs' Joe Wall. Their goal is to raise $50 million before next year's Iowa caucuses, according to four donors who have spoken to Rubio about the likely campaign's budget.

"Marco's best asset is Marco," said Scott Weaver, a former Capitol Hill staffer who organized a recent dinner for potential Rubio donors. "If you can get Marco in front of people, he sells himself. It's been an easier sales process than we thought at this point."

COMMENT:  That last statement is true.  Rubio is a great campaigner.  He's also Cuban-American, which, political writers assume, will attract Hispanic voters.  His problems at this point are to become better known, and to convince Republicans that he has the weight to be president.

The hot candidate at the moment is Scott Walker, who is relentless.  But Walker has made some gaffes, and some doubt that the brilliantly successful governor of Wisconsin is ready for a national campaign, where every sentence will be scrutinized.  Another obstacle is Jeb Bush, who was Rubio's mentor in Florida politics.  Bush may be offended by Rubio's entering the race, and could do some damage.

I hope Rubio gets in.  He is solid on foreign policy, and 2016 may turn out to be a foreign-policy election.

March 2, 2015        Permalink

AMERICANS WARY OF IRAN – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  Gallup reports that Americans continue to view Iran unfavorably, but Republicans are far more harsh than Democrats.  From Gallup:

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As the United States and several other nations continue to negotiate what would be a landmark agreement to limit Iran's production of nuclear weapons, more than eight in 10 Americans view Iran unfavorably (84%). Only 11% have a favorable view of the country. Despite this potential thaw in Iranian-U.S. relations, Americans' views on its long-time foe have remained unchanged for 26 years.

I'd love to meet some of those 11 percent. 

Iran's historical favorable average of 11% is the lowest of 22 countries Gallup asked about in this year's World Affairs poll, conducted Feb. 8-11 -- a list that includes such prominent U.S. adversaries as Russia, Syria and North Korea.

And...

...the vast majority of Americans (77%) say the development of nuclear weapons by Iran is a "critical threat," perhaps underscoring the importance of these talks. Another 16% say the threat is important, but not critical. Since 2013, a preponderance of U.S. adults have identified possible Iranian nuclear weapons as a critical threat and the issue has ranked highly compared with other possible threats facing the U.S.

But as the prospect of an agreement -- though still far from certain -- increases, Democrats are notably less likely to classify the development of an Iranian nuclear bomb as a critical threat compared with Republicans or even with Democratic responses in prior years. Today, 68% of Democrats say Iranian nuclear weapons would be a critical threat, compared with 91% of Republicans. This formidable 23-percentage-point gap, among the highest for the eight threats measured in the Gallup survey, was virtually nonexistent last year, when 86% of Republicans and 80% of Democrats viewed this as a critical threat.

In 2013, the gap between the parties was also a less pronounced one, at 12 points.

COMMENT:  This simply demonstrates the Democratic Party's move to the left, under Obama.  The party of Roosevelt, Truman and Kennedy is long gone.  And I don't see any signs that it's coming back.

March 2, 2015       Permalink

WARNING ON IRAN – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  One day before Bibi Netanyahu makes his historic and controversial speech to Congress on the dangers of Iran, he was given new, powerful ammunition from the UN nuclear monitor.  From Reuters: 

VIENNA - The head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog said on Monday Iran had still not handed over key information to his staff, and his body's investigation into Tehran's atomic program could not continue indefinitely.

"Iran has yet to provide explanations that enable the agency to clarify two outstanding practical measures," chief Yukiya Amano told the body's Board of Governors in Vienna, echoing a report seen by Reuters last month.

The two measures relating to alleged explosives tests and other measures that might have been used for bomb research should have been addressed by Iran by last August.

"The Agency is not in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities," Amano said.

The West fears Iran wants to develop an atomic bomb. Tehran says its nuclear program is entirely peaceful.

The Agency remains ready to accelerate the resolution of all outstanding issues, he added, but "this process cannot continue indefinitely."

COMMENT:  And remember that the Iranian missile program continues, with Iran developing a missile with a range of 6,000 miles.  The only reason a nation develops intercontinental ballistic missiles is to deliver nuclear warheads.  Those missiles are useless with conventional explosives.  The Iranian missile program alone is proof that the country's nuclear program is military, not peaceful.

March 2,  2015     Permalink

MARCH 1,  2015

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

SHE COME TO SAVE US! – From The Wall Street Journal:  "Hillary Clinton and her close advisers are telling Democratic donors that she will enter the presidential race sooner than expected, likely in April, a move that would allay uncertainties within her party and allow her to rev up fundraising."  I know we will all welcome this honest, dedicated, poverty-challenged woman of destiny.

NORTH KOREA MENACES – From Fox:  "North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reportedly told the army to prepare for war with the United States and its allies, state media reported Saturday, according to AFP.  'The prevailing situation where a great war for national reunification is at hand requires all the KPA (Korean People's Army) units to become (elite) Guard Units fully prepared for war politically and ideologically, in military technique and materially,' he said, according to the Korean Central News Agency.  Kim reportedly told the army to train to 'tear to pieces the Stars Stripes.'"  Obama's response will probably be to offer Kim a better job.

BIBI COMES TO DOWN – It's high noon in Washington on Tuesday when Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu addresses a joint session of Congress, a speech opposed by the Obama administration.  It's estimated that about 30 Democrats will boycott the speech out of loyalty to Barack Obama.  Hey, who cares about Iran having nuclear weapons?  While the event itself is controversial, Speaker Boehner said today that the request for tickets is the greatest he's ever seen in his time in Congress.  Whether one agrees or disagrees with the way in which the speech has been handled, Bibi will have important things to say about the proposed agreement with Iran.

March 1, 2015       Permalink

TALK TO EACH OTHER, PLEASE – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  Last week John Kerry went before a Congressional committee and announced that Americans were actually safer today than they had been, and that terrorism was exaggerated.

The very next day the director of national intelligence also appeared before a Congressional committee and said that, in his almost half century of service in the intelligence services, he's never been as concerned as he is now.  He and Kerry apparently don't meet too often.

And then Susan Rice, the national security adviser, made a statement to the effect that Netanyahu's upcoming speech to Congress is destructive of the relationship between the U.S. and Israel.  And now Kerry is saying this, from The Hill: 

Secretary of State John Kerry on Sunday contradicted National Security Advisor Susan Rice, saying that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is "welcome to speak" in the U.S.

“The prime minister of Israel is welcome to speak in the United States, obviously,” Kerry said on ABC’s "This Week."

“We have a closer relationship with Israel right now in terms of security than at any time in history,” he added

Kerry's remarks come just days before Netanyahu is scheduled to deliver a controversial address to a joint session of Congress that has sparked tensions between President Obama’s administration and Netanyahu. The world leader will address the Iranian nuclear threat while on the Hill.

National Security Advisor Susan Rice called the speech “destructive” to U.S.-Israel relations last week. More than two-dozen Democrats are also boycotting Netanyahu’s address, according to a whip list compiled by The Hill.

COMMENT:  I think Obama should hold a summer retreat, allowing members of his administration to meet each other, tell jokes, exchange pictures of family dogs, and have hamburgers.  This retreat is especially important since there's no leadership coming from the top. Foreign policy, and policy involving terrorism, are critical, and yet members of the administration send mixed signals to our allies and enemies.

The first step in improving this situation is to get Obama interested.  Mission impossible.

March 1, 2015        Permalink

CORKER SLAMS OBAMA – AT 10:31 A.M. ET:   On the eve of Bibi Netanyahu's speech to Congress, warning of the danger of Iran, Republican Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is challenging President Obama.  A confrontation between Congress and Obama is building over the Iranian nuclear program.  From the Jerusalem Post: 

WASHINGTON -- Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Bob Corker (R-Tennessee), author of new legislation that would require congressional oversight and a vote of approval on any future nuclear deal with Iran, slammed US President Barack Obama on Saturday night for threatening to veto the bill.

"It is disappointing that the president feels he is the only one who speaks for the citizens of our country," Corker said in a statement. "Congress put these sanctions in place and helped bring Iran to the table with the administration working against the effort the whole way. As a result, Congress should decide whether a final nuclear deal with Iran is appropriate enough to have the congressionally mandated sanctions removed."

Corker is correct in pointing out that Obama was opposed to the very sanctions that brought Iran to the negotiating table.  Now he is taking credit for them.  Obama has a sympathy for Iran, as he does for most of the Muslim world.  I wish he had the same sympathy for the United States, which presumably is his own country.  Presumably.

Corker introduced the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 on Friday alongside Senators Robert Menendez (D-New Jersey), Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Tim Kaine (D-Virginia). If passed, the law would grant Congress the opportunity to approve, or disapprove, of a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran negotiated by the Obama administration.

Their move was immediately criticized by the White House. Obama will veto all legislation on Iran so long as negotiations are under way, one spokesman told the Post.

COMMENT:  One great fear I have is that Obama will not reveal the entire agreement with Iran, even if it is signed.  He might withhold secret covenants.  It's the way he does business.  Recall that we were told by Nancy Pelosi that Congress had to pass Obamacare to know what was in it.

The nuclear deal with Iran would represent an existential threat to America and its allies.  The leaks we're getting show that it would be a very weak agreement, with many flaws.  Corker is simply asking for the kind of Congressional oversight that a treaty about fisheries would get.  Apparently that's too much for this increasingly totalitarian administration.

March 1, 2015       Permalink

MURDER IN MOSCOW – AT 10:05 A.M. ET:  One of Putin's most popular critics has been murdered in Moscow, just as Putin ignores the cease-fire arranged for Ukraine.  Obama seems uninterested.  Must not upset Putin too much.  From Fox: 

MOSCOW – Carrying flowers, portraits and signs that said "I am not afraid," thousands of Russians marched Sunday in Moscow to mourn opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, whose slaying on the streets of the capital has shaken Russia's beleaguered opposition.

Reminds us of the recent street demonstrations against terrorism in Paris.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has marginalized and intimidated his political opponents, jailing some and driving others into exile, since mass anti-Putin protests swept Moscow in 2011 and 2012. Nemtsov, 55, was among the few prominent opposition figures who had refused to be cowed.

The mourners on Sunday marched to the bridge near the Kremlin where Nemtsov was gunned down shortly before midnight Friday. The mood was somber, with a heavy police presence.

Ilya Yashin, a friend and fellow opposition leader, said he hoped the killing would not frighten people.

"Essentially it is an act of terror. It is a political murder aimed at frightening the population, or the part of the population that supported Nemtsov and did not agree with the government," Yashin told The Associated Press. "I hope we won't get scared, that we will continue what Boris was doing."

The march could energize the opposition, but it could also prove to be a brief expression of emotions that dissipates in a climate of fear.

Russia's federal investigative agency said it was looking into several possible motives for Nemtsov's killing.

The first possibility, the Investigative Committee said, was that the killing was aimed at destabilizing the political situation in Russia and Nemtsov was a "sacrificial victim for those who do not shun any method for achieving their political goals."

COMMENT:  Russia is reverting back to its old ways.  There is very little pushback from the United States.  Since Obama regards Russia as no worse than American, why should there be?

March 1,  2015     Permalink